Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment.We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison to a standard Phillips curve approach. Because the forecast performance is particularly good for longer horizons, we also compare our indicators to traditional measures of core inflation.Here, the sentiment indicators outperform the weighted median and show a similar forecasting power as a trimmed mean. Thus, they offer a convincing alternative to traditional core inflation measures.Inflation forecasting, monetary policy

The influence of glutathione S-transferases M1 and M3 on the development of bladder cancer

Problem: Cigarette smoking is the most important risk factor of transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder. The effect of the glutathione S- transferases M1 (GSTM1) and M3 (GSTM3) on the influence of this risk factor was investigated. Methods: A total of 293 bladder cancer patients from Dortmund and Wittenberg as well as 176 surgical patients without any malignancy from Dortmund were genotyped for GSTM1 und GSTM3 according to standard PCR/RFLP methods. Smoking habits were also qualified by a standardized interview. Results: The percentage of GSTM1 negative cases was 63 % in the entire bladder cancer patient group compared to 50 % in the control group. GSTM3*A/*A genotype was 76 % in the entire group of bladder cancer cases and 74 % in controls. Smokers and ex-smokers were overrepresented in the bladder cancer patient group. A significant association between smoking status and GSTM1 or GSTM3 genotype could not be revealed. Conclusion: The elevated percentage of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer cases shows the important effect of this polymorphic enzyme on the development of bladder cancer. In contrast to some other studies, an influence of GSTM1 on the risk due to cigarette smoking could not be observed. --Bladder cancer,glutathione S-transferase M1,glutathione S-transferase M3,smoking

Modeling the HeII Transverse Proximity Effect: Constraints on Quasar Lifetime and Obscuration

The HeII transverse proximity effect - enhanced HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission in a background sightline caused by the ionizing radiation of a foreground quasar - offers a unique opportunity to probe the emission properties of quasars, in particular the emission geometry (obscuration, beaming) and the quasar lifetime. Building on the foreground quasar survey published in Schmidt+2017, we present a detailed model of the HeII transverse proximity effect, specifically designed to include light travel time effects, finite quasar ages, and quasar obscuration. We post-process outputs from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with a fluctuating HeII UV background model, plus the added effect of the radiation from a single bright foreground quasar. We vary the age $t_\mathrm{age}$ and obscured sky fractions $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}$ of the foreground quasar, and explore the resulting effect on the HeII transverse proximity effect signal. Fluctuations in IGM density and the UV background, as well as the unknown orientation of the foreground quasar, result in a large variance of the HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission along the background sightline. We develop a fully Bayesian statistical formalism to compare far UV HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission spectra of the background quasars to our models, and extract joint constraints on $t_\mathrm{age}$ and $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}$ for the six Schmidt+2017 foreground quasars with the highest implied HeII photoionization rates. Our analysis suggests a bimodal distribution of quasar emission properties, whereby one foreground quasar, associated with a strong HeII transmission spike, is relatively old $(22\,\mathrm{Myr})$ and unobscured $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}<35\%$, whereas three others are either younger than $(10\,\mathrm{Myr})$ or highly obscured $(\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}>70\%)$.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Ap

Integral models of ℙ¹ and analytic distribution algebras for GL(2)

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Using Long-Duration Static Stretch Training to Counteract Strength and Flexibility Deficits in Moderately Trained Participants

Many sports injuries result in surgery and prolonged periods of immobilization, which may lead to significant atrophy accompanied by loss of maximal strength and range of motion and, therefore, a weak-leg/strong-leg ratio (as an imbalance index ∆ ) lower than 1. Consequently, there are common rehabilitation programs that aim to enhance maximal strength, muscle thickness and flexibility; however, the literature demonstrates existing strength imbalances after weeks of rehabilitation. Since no study has previously been conducted to investigate the effects of long-duration static stretch training to treat muscular imbalances, the present research aims to determine the possibility of counteracting imbalances in maximal strength and range of motion. Thirty-nine athletic participants with significant calf muscle imbalances in maximal strength and range of motion were divided into an intervention group (one-hour daily plantar flexors static stretching of the weaker leg for six weeks) and a control group to evaluate the effects on maximal strength and range of motion with extended and bent knee joint. Results show significant increases in maximal strength (d = 0.84–1.61, p < 0.001–0.005) and range of motion (d = 0.92–1.49, p < 0.001–0.002) following six weeks of static stretching. Group * time effects ( p < 0.001–0.004, η² = 0.22–0.55) revealed ∆ changes in the intervention group from 0.87 to 1.03 for maximal strength and from 0.92 to 1.11 in range of motion. The results provide evidence for the use of six weeks of daily, one hour stretching to counteract muscular imbalances. Related research in clinical settings after surgery is suggested

Tetramer enrichment reveals the presence of phenotypically diverse hepatitis C virus-specific CD8+T cells in chronic infection

Virus-specific CD8+ T cells are rarely detectable ex vivo by conventional methods during chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In this study, however, we were able to detect and characterize HCV-specific CD8+ T cells in all chronically HCV genotype 1a-infected, HLA-A*02:01-positive patients analyzed by performing major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I tetramer enrichment. Two-thirds of these enriched HCV-specific CD8+ T-cell populations displayed an effector memory phenotype, whereas, surprisingly, one-third displayed a naive-like phenotype despite ongoing viral replication. CD8+ T cells with an effector memory phenotype could not expand in vitro, suggesting exhaustion of these cells. Interestingly, some of the naive-like CD8+ T cells proliferated vigorously upon in vitro priming, whereas others did not. These differences were linked to the corresponding viral sequences in the respective patients. Indeed, naive-like CD8+ T cells from patients with the consensus sequence in the corresponding T-cell epitope did not expand in vitro. In contrast, in patients displaying sequence variations, we were able to induce HCV-specific CD8+ T-cell proliferation, which may indicate infection with a variant virus. Collectively, these data reveal the presence of phenotypically and functionally diverse HCV-specific CD8+ T cells at very low frequencies that are detectable in all chronically infected patients despite viral persistence. IMPORTANCE In this study, we analyzed CD8+ T-cell responses specific for HLA-A*02:01-restricted epitopes in chronically HCV-infected patients, using MHC class I tetramer enrichment. Importantly, we could detect HCV-specific CD8+ T-cell populations in all patients. To further characterize these HCV-specific CD8+ T-cell populations that are not detectable using conventional techniques, we performed phenotypic, functional, and viral sequence analyses. These data revealed different mechanisms for CD8+ T-cell failure in HCV infection, including T-cell exhaustion, viral escape, and functional impairment of naive-like HCV-specific CD8+ T cells

Impact of Serum Cytokine Levels on EEG-Measured Arousal Regulation in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder and Healthy Controls

Background: In major depressive disorder (MDD), findings include hyperstable regulation of brain arousal measured by electroencephalography (EEG) vigilance analysis and alterations in serum levels of cytokines. It is also known that cytokines affect sleep-wake regulation. This study investigated the relationship between cytokines and EEG vigilance in participants with MDD and nondepressed controls, and the influence of cytokines on differences in vigilance between the two groups. Methods: In 60 patients with MDD and 129 controls, 15-min resting-state EEG recordings were performed and vigilance was automatically assessed with the VIGALL 2.0 (Vigilance Algorithm Leipzig). Serum levels of the wakefulness-promoting cytokines interleukin (IL)-4, IL-10, IL-13 and somnogenic cytokines tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma and IL-2 were measured prior to the EEG. Results: Summed wakefulness-promoting cytokines, but not somnogenic cytokines, were significantly associated with the time course of EEG vigilance in the MDD group only. In both groups, IL-13 was significantly associated with the course of EEG vigilance. In MDD compared to controls, a hyperstable EEG vigilance regulation was found, significant for group and group x time course interaction. After controlling for wakefulness-promoting cytokines, differences in vigilance regulation between groups remained significant. Conclusions: The present study demonstrated a relationship between wakefulness-promoting cytokines and objectively measured EEG vigilance as an indicator for brain arousal. Altered brain arousal regulation in MDD gives support for future evaluation of vigilance measures as a biomarker in MDD. Since interactions between cytokines and EEG vigilance only moderately differed between the groups and cytokine levels could not explain the group differences in EEG vigilance regulation, cytokines and brain arousal regulation are likely to be associated with MDD in independent ways. (C) 2016 S. Karger AG, Base